🧠 ChatGPT's BS Problem, ☢️ Bill Gates' Nuclear Vision, and 🛒 TikTok's Beauty Boom
🧠 ChatGPT's BS Problem, ☢️ Bill Gates' Nuclear Vision, and 🛒 TikTok's Beauty Boom
Thomas's Innovation Wrap #82
Greetings,
Here’s your weekly wrap of technology, innovation, and finance news.
💎 Artificial Intelligence
Mistral AI, a French generative AI startup founded just over a year ago, has raised €600 million at a €5.8 billion valuation. This latest funding round marks a significant increase from the company's €2 billion valuation in December and €240 million valuation in June 2023, reflecting Mistral AI's impressive growth and adoption since its launch last year. The company's open-source models have been downloaded over 27 million times.
Notably, Mistral has ushered in a boom period for French AI. French President Emmanuel Macron recently touted the startup as a potential tech giant that could enable Europe to challenge the dominance of China and the US.
Apple unveiled "Apple Intelligence" at WWDC, integrating AI-powered features across its products, including a ChatGPT partnership with OpenAI for Siri and other apps. Notably, Apple won't pay OpenAI for this integration, as OpenAI bets on increased exposure driving ChatGPT Plus subscriptions.
To keep user data secure, Apple has created "Private Cloud Compute" (PCC), which processes data in dedicated data centres using custom server hardware and a hardened OS. Prioritising privacy, Apple has excluded traditional admin components like remote shells and observability tools, instead focusing on a privacy-first architecture where user data is deleted after fulfilling each request.
This approach to AI integration and data security impressed investors, with Apple stock surging 8% over the week and briefly overtaking Microsoft as the world's most valuable company. Analysts speculate that the new AI features could spur a major iPhone upgrade cycle, further cementing Apple's position in the market. Nvidia rounded out the week in third place.
If you're familiar with the investment industry, you've no doubt met someone who speaks confidently about a broad range of topics and appears really smart – until they venture into a domain you know well, and you realise they're largely making it up as they go along. As it turns out, this may be an apt analogy for ChatGPT. In a thought-provoking paper titled "ChatGPT is 'BS'," the authors argue that ChatGPT's false claims are better described as "BS" than as hallucinations or lies. Drawing on philosopher Harry Frankfurt's concept of BS, characterised by a reckless disregard for the truth rather than an intent to deceive, they suggest that ChatGPT is, at minimum, a "soft" BS-er that simply doesn't care about the truth of its outputs. So the next time you're wowed by ChatGPT's seemingly knowledgeable responses, just remember: you might be talking to the AI equivalent of that smooth-talking BS artist at your last investment conference.
💊 Health
An FDA advisory committee unanimously concluded that Donanemab, Eli Lilly's experimental Alzheimer's drug, slows cognitive decline in early-stage patients enough to outweigh its risks. Despite questions about long-term efficacy and potentially serious side effects, full FDA approval would be a significant breakthrough for Alzheimer's patients and their families.
New research reveals surprising mental health and brain benefits from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. These medications show early promise in treating depression, anxiety, addiction, and neurodegenerative diseases, potentially through direct action on the brain rather than just weight loss.
It is early days, but there are hints that these drugs could be repurposed to treat depression, anxiety, addiction and even certain eating disorders – as well as neurological conditions such as Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's.
USC researchers have developed a wearable AI system that can track the precise location and concentration of gas-sensing ingestible pills in the gut. The technology has the potential to allow at-risk individuals to monitor their gastrointestinal health at home without invasive tests.
"Ingestibles are like Fitbits for the gut," says Yasser Khan, a USC professor of electrical and computer engineering. "But tracking them once swallowed has been a significant challenge."
💲 Finance
OpenAI is set to generate $3.4 billion in annual revenues this year, more than doubling its late 2023 annualised revenue of $1.6 billion. This growth is fueled by consumer and developer subscriptions to its AI models such as ChatGPT.
Altman said his company was going to bring in about $200 million by selling access to its AI models via the Microsoft business-centric Azure cloud service. But that meant the huge majority of this year's $3.4 billion would be coming from products and services, according to Altman.
Sakana AI, a startup founded by former Google researchers, is planning a funding round that would make it the fastest Japanese company to achieve unicorn status.
Sakana follows a different strategy that takes a cue from biological evolution. The company said in March it had developed technology for merging multiple small AI models to efficiently create more sophisticated systems. This approach, with its relatively low cost and power requirements, has drawn interest from global investors.
Congress members like Nancy Pelosi have an uncanny knack for beating the market, likely thanks to their immunity from insider trading laws. Now, retail investors can attempt to ride their coattails with Tuttle Capital's new Congressional Trading ETF, though the delay in reporting may mean its too late to capitalise on their trades.
Raspberry Pi, the popular microcomputer manufacturer, saw its shares soar 50% in its first four days of trading on the London stock market. Known for its affordable single-board computers originally designed for educational purposes, Raspberry Pi's mini-computers have found a diverse range of applications, contributing to the company's impressive market debut.
🤖 Robotics
Tesla has made significant progress with its Optimus humanoid robot program, with two robots now reportedly working autonomously in its factories. This milestone marks a major step forward from reports suggesting the robots were still being remotely trained. Elon Musk is doubling down on Optimus, envisioning Tesla building robots for around $10,000 each and selling them for $20,000, aiming to have over 1,000 deployed in Tesla's factories by next year.
Walmart's CFO has revealed the impressive efficiency gains the company is achieving by automating its distribution centres.
"When we automate one of these DCs, we see roughly twice the throughput with half the head count," he said. "And so the math on this is very, very compelling."
🌞 Renewables and Clean Energy
The IEA’s annual World Energy Investment Report says that global clean energy investment is surging and set to hit $2 trillion in 2024, almost double that for fossil fuels.
The offshore wind industry continues to supersize turbines, with Siemens Energy planning a massive 21 MW design to outdo Chinese competitors like CSSC, which just launched its own 18 MW behemoth.
China's 18-MW offshore wind turbine has a 260-meter (853-foot) rotor diameter and a swept area of 53,000 square meters (570,487 square feet) – equivalent to 7.4 standard football fields.
UK-based Highview Power has secured £300 million in funding for the country's first commercial "liquid air" energy storage plant. This innovative solution stores excess renewable power as compressed and cooled air, releasing it later to generate electricity when needed.
Nuclear fusion researchers have devised a promising tokamak-stellarator hybrid design that could lead to more stable and efficient reactors. By using "banana coils" to twist the magnetic fields, the design aims to avoid tokamak instabilities while being simpler than a pure stellarator.
"This is really interesting work that uses modern theoretical and computational tools to investigate a new idea in fusion energy," says Benjamin Dudson at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
Bill Gates' TerraPower has begun construction on an innovative advanced nuclear reactor in Wyoming. The Microsoft founder is heavily investing in this sodium-cooled plant, which aims to revolutionise carbon-free power generation by offering a safer and more cost-effective alternative to conventional nuclear reactor designs.
"I put in over a billion, and I'll put in billions more," said Gates, the world's sixth-richest person according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Gates sees advanced nuclear as crucial for powering the rise of EVs, heating, and AI while keeping emissions in check. The reactor's passive cooling design boasts an "incredibly strong safety case," preventing meltdowns even during power outages.
TerraPower estimates the plant could be built for up to $4 billion, which would be a bargain when compared to other nuclear projects recently completed in the U.S. Two nuclear reactors built from scratch in Georgia cost nearly $35 billion, the Associated Press reports.
Using sodium instead of water allows for lower pressure, higher temperatures, and potential cost savings compared to conventional reactors. While not a new concept, advanced sodium-cooled reactors haven't been commercially pursued in the US for around four decades.
🤩 Advertising
The advertising landscape is evolving with the introduction of AI-powered tools. Pinterest is rolling out AI-based ad features to create more engaging and personalized Promoted Pins, while also launching Performance+, an AI-powered media buying tool similar to offerings from Meta and Google. Yahoo has also released Blueprint Performance, its answer to AI-powered media buying tools, with a focus on transparency.
Pinterest's ad revenue is projected to increase 17.2% this year, reaching $2.66 billion, up from 5.8% in 2023, according to eMarketer. An AI buying tool will likely add another boost to its fortunes.
In the streaming ad market, Netflix is lowering ad prices and embracing new offerings such as product placement as Amazon's entry into the ad-supported streaming market with Prime Video is driving down ad prices across the industry. Meanwhile, Disney is innovating with interactive streaming ads, introducing advergames and shoppable formats across its portfolio.
"These kinds of ads are certainly going to be more memorable, especially because they are still pretty unfamiliar to most people," Shields said. "They will definitely stand out, at least at first."
📚 Regulation
Japan has enacted a new law requiring Apple and Google to allow third-party app stores and payment providers on iOS and Android devices, following the EU's lead in promoting competition in the digital markets. The law aims to break up the perceived oligopoly in the smartphone market and give consumers more choice.
The Economist writes that America’s assassination attempt on Huawei is backfiring, saying that the company's strategy of investing in Chinese suppliers and developing its own intellectual property has allowed it to thrive despite US sanctions, with surging profits and rising telecoms-equipment sales.
Having failed to kill Huawei, Uncle Sam's attacks have only made it stronger.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is considering tightening restrictions on cutting-edge AI chip exports to China.
The US goal is to make it harder for China to assemble the sophisticated computing systems needed to build and operate AI models, they said — and to cordon off still-nascent technology before it’s commercialized.
🛰️ Space
Rocket Lab is set to receive nearly $24 million in funding from the Biden administration to expand its space-grade solar cell chip manufacturing in New Mexico. These specialised, radiation-resistant cells are critical for powering satellites and spacecraft. The expansion is expected to boost Rocket Lab's production capacity by 50% over the next three years and create around 100 new manufacturing jobs.
Rocket Lab, founded in 2006 by New Zealander Peter Beck, is one of two U.S. firms specializing in the production of highly efficient, radiation resistant compound semiconductors called space-grade solar cells, the department said.
Researchers in Japan have created the world's first wooden satellite, aiming to usher in a new era of more sustainable, less polluting satellites. The 10cm cubic satellite, named LignoSat, is made of magnolia wood panels and could pave the way for more eco-friendly designs that reduce space debris.
When LignoSat plunges back to Earth, after six months to a year of service, the magnolia will incinerate completely and release only water vapour and carbon dioxide, says Takao Doi, an astronaut and engineer at Kyoto University, who is part of the research team.
The winners of this year's Milky Way Photographer of the Year competition have been announced, showcasing stunning images of our galaxy captured from various locations worldwide.
⚡ Other Snippets
TikTok's in-app shopping tool, TikTok Shop, has become a major player in the online beauty retail space in just nine months.
TikTok Shop is now the ninth-largest beauty and wellness ecommerce retailer in the U.S. market and the second-largest in the U.K. market, according to data from Dash Hudson and NielsenIQ.
Camb AI is taking voice cloning to a new level with Mars5, an AI model that claims to offer unprecedented levels of realism and support for over 140 languages. The model combines voice cloning and text-to-speech conversion into a single platform, capturing complex speech attributes to deliver highly natural-sounding speech.
The level of prosody and realism that Mars5 is able to capture, even with just a few seconds of input, is unprecedented. This is a mistral moment in speech," Akshat Prakash, the co-founder and CTO of the company, said in a statement.
Startups are trying to remove cows from the milk production process by using yeast and plants engineered with bovine genes to produce the key milk proteins casein and whey.
It's part of a larger trend of replacing animals with ingredients grown in labs, steel vessels, or plant crops. Think of the Impossible burger, the veggie patty made mouthwatering with the addition of heme, a component of blood that's produced in the roots of genetically modified soybeans.
The planned de-extinction of the dodo in Mauritius could offer a lifeline to its critically endangered relative, the pink pigeon. By using genetic engineering to restore lost diversity to the pink pigeon population, researchers hope to ensure the species' long-term survival.
"Maybe we need to reach into the toolbox of de-extinction," says Shapiro.
While de-extinction remains controversial, the genetic techniques being developed by companies like Colossal Biosciences could quickly help endangered species resist environmental pressures that threaten their survival.
Get the technology right and we could end up rescuing a whole range of species before they go the way of the dodo.
Personal Plug: Minotaur Capital, which I co-founded in November, just released its first monthly report for our newly launched Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund. Read it here.
Have a great week,
Thomas
About Thomas Rice
Thomas Rice co-founded Minotaur Capital, a technology-driven, AI-led global equities fund, and is based in Sydney, Australia. He can be found on the platform-formerly-known-as-Twitter at @thomasrice_au.